BFCM Retention Report
How much less should you pay for a Black Friday customer?
We compared customers acquired during BFCM 2025 with those acquired during the rest of 2025 across 33 brands, representing $5 billion in GMV. At 30 of them, Black Friday customers were less likely to buy again.
Results are directional, not a universal CAC adjustment. Some brands saw little decline; others did better. Definitions vary by brand, and a fair comparison gives both cohorts the same time to come back.
Two discounts. One CAC ceiling.
Black Friday revenue can look great. January's P&L might tell a different story. There are two discounts to account for: the offer you run, and the lower repeat value of the customers you acquire.
The free calculator uses your typical LTV and CAC, last year's BFCM cohort LTV or retention rate, and your planned promo to estimate an adjusted CAC target. It accounts for both the retention difference and the margin you give away.
Before setting your BFCM budget
- Isolate last year's BFCM cohort. Look at first-time buyers acquired November 28 to December 1, 2025, and their repeat rate at 90 and 180 days.
- Set a separate CAC ceiling. Use your own retention and promo economics. Base the decision on margin, not revenue.
- Judge the cohort in January. Cyber Monday revenue is only the first part of the story.
Ask your own data: “How does my BFCM 2025 retention compare to the rest of 2025?”
Connect your commerce data through Polar and follow the setup guide to run the analysis on your own brand.